Thinking

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

NMuch of my thinking begins with a simple problem: we often have to make consequential decisions before we can know enough to be certain.

I explore what that means for strategy, portfolio decisions, risk, evidence, and the way organizations turn information into action—particularly when uncertainty cannot simply be quantified away.

Explore Mental Models
Mental Models

Ways of Seeing the Problem

Mental models don't eliminate uncertainty. They help me question assumptions, examine problems from different angles, and notice what a single representation might leave out.

Uncertainty & Optionality

Systems & Interdependencies

Models & Reality

Not everything important can be predicted or reduced to a probability. I look for robustness, optionality, reversibility, and ways to avoid irreversible harm when knowledge is incomplete.

Problems rarely exist in isolation. I look at relationships, feedback, constraints, incentives, and second-order effects—especially where changing one part of a system changes the behavior of another.

Models, metrics, and frameworks are useful representations, but they are not the reality they describe. I pay attention to what gets simplified, excluded, or assumed when complex situations are made measurable.

Selected Writings

Essays & Notes — Forthcoming

I write to work through ideas rather than simply present conclusions. This section will bring together selected essays and notes on uncertainty, decision-making, careers, organizations, and other questions that have held my attention.

Forthcoming